Ormax launches scientific Box Office forecasting model "FBO"
Media & entertainment research firm Ormax Media announced the launch of FBO, India’s first scientific box office forecasting model. FBO stands for First-Day Box Office. The model forecasts the opening day nett collections at domestic box office for unreleased films upto seven weeks before release.
The FBO model takes into account a series of input parameters. These include inputs from Ormax Media’s film campaign tracking product Cinematix, which tracks the Buzz, Reach & Appeal of unreleased Bollywood films for almost three years now. Cinematix covers 19 cities across India, accounting for more than 95% of domestic box office coverage. Other FBO model inputs include release scale, holiday & festival factors, audience profile and several other such variables on which normative data has been built by Ormax Media over the last four years.
FBO forecast will be available to subscribers everyday, from seven weeks before the release of a film till the day of the release. The model has been tested to accurately forecast the first-day box office collections of at least 85% films with less than 10% error margin.
FBO is being targeted at film studios and producers, as well as media agencies and advertisers who associate with films through co-branded promotions and in-film placement. Existing subscribers of Cinematix will be upgraded to an FBO-enabled version of the product at an incremental cost.
Speaking about FBO, Shailesh Kapoor, CEO – Ormax Media said: “The model is extremely valuable as the box office estimate will be available seven weeks in advance. That will give the stakeholders enough time to take corrective action. Also, it is not a back-of-the-envelope prediction of the box office. It is a statistically tested forecast model that has self-learning built into it, guaranteeing progressively better results with time.”
The first official FBO forecast was done for last week’s release Barfi, at Rs. 8.80 crore nett opening day at the domestic box office. The actual figures stood at Rs. 8.56 crore nett – an error margin of less than 3%.